Why Labour Cannot Blame Jeremy Corbyn if Nigel Farage Becomes Prime Minister
With Reform UK surging above Labour in the polls, Neil Kinnock has turned to attack Jeremy Corbyn's new party for 'splitting the left wing vote'. Here's why his claims are nonsense!
Over the weekend, Jeremy Corbyn toured towns across the UK, outlining the aims and strategy of his new political outfit, Your Party. In a series of North West meetings, he introduced potential council candidates for next year’s local elections, stressing that selections would be grassroots-led to ensure the voices of local communities are heard in Westminster.
The former Leader of the Labour Party is set to enter the polls at around 15% according to Find Out Now survey, competing with the Liberal Democrats, the Tories, and even the current Labour government's popularity.
Not everyone is impressed. Former Labour leader Neil Kinnock has condemned the move, warning that a new “leftist” party risks splitting the progressive vote and handing Nigel Farage the keys to Downing Street. He even dubbed Corbyn’s initiative the “Farage Assistance Group”.
However, the numbers tell a different story. Labour isn't losing popularity (at least mainly) because of Your Party; its is losing ground because of itself.
Labour have already taken a historic battering in the polls long before Jeremy Corbyn’s new party was even conceived. Reform UK have polled as high as 28%, while Labour slumped to below 20% in recent YouGov surveys. Keir Starmer’s personal ratings have dipped below Rishi Sunak at his lowest, a humiliating position for a sitting Prime Minister, especially after obtaining office just over a year ago.
The cause is not Corbyn, but the vacuum at the centre of Labour’s project: a lack of vision on the economy, migration, and cost-of-living issues, coupled with persistent shortages in council housing. Attempts to mimic Reform UK’s rhetoric on asylum seekers have only hollowed out Labour’s distinct identity.
The second hole in Lord Kinnock's view is the assumption that Corbyn is peeling voters away from Labour. In fact, the constituency most attracted to Corbyn’s politics are some of the most politically disenfranchised people in Britain: those who already recognised the failures of neoliberal economics, who live with stagnant wages and deepening poverty, and who have largely stayed at home on election day in 2024. This was most prevalent in Labour safely held seats, showing a drop in turnout by 9.7 points.
Starmer's Landslide Victory was a loveless one (based on the Tories being incompetent at... well... everything), winning only 33.7% of the popular vote (9.7 Million Votes), whereas under Corbyn's leadership the party secured 12.9 million votes (40%) in 2017, and 10.3 million votes (32.1%) in 2019. Combined with a lower left wing turnout in 2024, some voting patterns also show that Labour had already lost a significant proportion of votes to the Green Party and to a lesser extent, the Liberal Democrats according to Ipsos. Therefore, Corbyn cannot take what is already gone!
To further this point, of the 2024 electorate, those who are most likely to vote for Your Party are the green party as shown above. Notably, 58% of Green voters and just 31% of Labour 2024 voters would entertain backing the leftist project, indicating the new party’s core appeal lies more with Greens than with Labour as only 2% of Labour's base claiming they were "highly likely" to defect.
If Kinnock is correct in saying Your Party could split the left wing vote, if we take for granted that Labour are no longer left wing, as further splitting leftist votes could embolden cabinet members' majorities. Younger people and Londoners show the highest openness to Corbyn’s party. In marginal seats, such as those held by David Lammy and Wes Streeting, competition from left-wing independents and Greens already challenges Labour, and a Corbyn party could further split this vote.
One thing is clear: Mr. Starmer has lost the British public’s goodwill. With Reform UK surging after the 2025 local elections and poised to win a majority in 2029, taking votes from both the Tories and Labour, Starmer’s strategy of mimicking Reform's rhetoric is failing. Instead, he should focus on building a distinct Labour identity and governing competently to regain trust and effectively challenge Reform’s growing influence.
Jacob Barclay-Evans
Follow this link to read about how we are being lied to about migration.